Extremely Loose Games
Posted By: Izmet Fekali
Date: Thursday, 23 September 1999, at 10:32 a.m.
In Response To: Re: extremely loose games? (natedogg)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker
Sonuvabitch Natedogg writes:
Loose, low limit games may not be beatable. There is some debate on this. Between the rake or time charges, and the high variance, you simply can't bank on being a winning player, even if you are the "best" player at the table.
Loose, low limit games are very beatable, unless the rake is proportionally astronomic. My live play experience and computer (Turbo) research show they can be very profitable.
As fish make many mistakes, it is only logical that a good player must have the best of it. There is no doubt about it. The only issues are: Can he beat the rake, can he withstand the variance and can he pinpoint the correct strategy?I'll try to address them separately.
Please note that an argument is often made that the fish play nearly correctly in such games (= they call a lot) and their mistakes are therefore not that great for the game to be beatable. True, good pot odds post-flop dictate to chase often with dubious holdings and this is an example of a strategy nailed down pat by the fish. "Good" players, used to "normal and sane" games (having no clue about this simple concept), usually adopt "good laydowns" strategy which simply costs them money.
But of course, fish do not play correctly on their EVERY move. It only looks like they are, as they often correctly (or with minimum -EV) chase big pots to the river. The thing is, some of the mistakes they make are HUGE and cannot be compensated by playing correctly the rest of the time.
- The rake
My loose games experience comes from regularly playing with 5% rake capped at 25 big bets, 7 to 12 handed hold'em, typically 5 or more players seeing the flop with not much capping preflop. This kind of rake in this kind of game is extremely beatable and a smart player's EV per hand can be unusually high. The game is somewhat slower than normal (about 25-28 hands per hour), of course, but I still find the hourly rate to be considerably higher than the widely accepted norm. My Turbo sims show it can approach 3 big bets per hour (even with a slow game), my real life experience (about 900 hours of play in the game with almost the same lineup) seems to confirm that.
With a 5% rake, big pots and lots of unpredictable gamb00lers, it becomes obvious that selective and tight preflop play is called for in these kind of games.
- The variance
The variance in these kind of games is extremely high, due solely to big pots. Tight play does not provide a solution to this problem, although it somewhat tones it down. The obvious answer is a big enough bankroll. Do NOT adopt any strategies designed to reduce variance!
- The strategy
The best strategy in loosest games is to maximize fish mistakes, build big pots when having the best of it and get the hell out preflop when in marginal situations. As the fish are often calling correctly postflop (good pot odds), it is imperative to hit them with raises when they are not. The time to do it is usually preflop, where they are apt to call with anything. If there is a reasonable chance that your hand is best, you should raise and re-raise right there to destroy the implied fish odds. This is the time to maximize their mistakes. Sure, they will try to offset this with correctly chasing postflop, but to no avail. Big mistakes preflop cannot be compensated in any way. Please note that fish very often chase incorrectly too, a good example is when they try to hit a set with their small pairs all the way to the river. This is another reason to raise liberally when having a reasonable chance to collect.
To put it simply, as fish are conditioned to call, it is necessary to exploit this tendency by raising (building the pot) in situations when them calling is profitable for you. The value of raising to knock people out greatly diminishes in such a game. A good example of smart raising is with flush/straight draws and many potential callers. You do not want them to fold. And they won't. See my loose games FAQ for more info on this "Ram and Jam" concept.
Please note that S&M put a lot more value in eliminating the competition in loose games than I do. You might want to check their views on loose games in their new edition of HPfAP.
Starting hands selection is crucial and somewhat different from "normal" (oh, that eternal "what is normal" question again… is it normal for me to prefer sheep over women? They keep telling me it's not… I dunno.). Suited aces are keepers in any position, raisers in late position. Play looser with suited kings and queens, don't fold small pairs. Raise liberally with big unsuited likely-to-be-best hands (again, you might want to consult S&M on this as they recommend the opposite here). Raise the goddamn limpers late with suited connectors from 65s up. Build pots with pairs like 77 and up. BTW, this seems illogical as overcards are bound to fall and pair somebody, but as Abdul points out (and he was first to do so), these hands win more than their fair share and should, therefore, raise early.
With many in, jam preflop with hands like T9s, JJ or ATs even if one opponent shows you pocket aces! This concept is fairly unknown, but quite powerful. It is profitable to get more money in even with an obvious second best hand, as the best two hands are BOTH profiting from the fish calling incorrectly, the best hand, of course, profiting the most. Granted, it is a high variance play, and you might want to avoid it (you wimp, you!).
Stay away from unsuited connectors lower than ten, they are losers in ANY game. 98o is a greatly overrated hand and can't earn much outside the blinds even when playing with idiots. You are not much wrong to muck it for one bet on the button even. Hands like offsuit bare aces and kings, bare suited hands like J5s or 96s and second best offsuit hands like QT, JT, Q9 are suicidal trash in early position, maybe break-even in late position. If you find yourself calling raises with JTo, K9o or A7o, it is time to realize you have joined fish ranks. Muck with a vengeance! If you have to, this is the time to aim for the dealer's forehead.
Generally, you cannot go wrong with keeping the Fekali principle in mind: "Big hands should bet early, little hands will bet late." meaning that drawing hands will torture big pairs late in the hand and therefore should be charged early for the privilege. For a more detailed explanation, see my rgp post on this.
Of course, the above is only the tip of the iceberg and I typed this off the top of my head. Please forgive the generalizations as delving into details probably requires a dedicated book. I feel the loose games section in HPfAP in inadequate or at least incomplete.
… Nine out of ten times, when I supposedly have the "best of it", I end up getting the worst of it. The "fish" have been running great in the Bay Area this year! I've never, ever, sat down at a table where the "good" players were winning all the money from the bad players. I've seen the reverse plenty of times however.
It is impossible for a good player to win ALL the money from the bad players. However, it is quite possible to bust SOME of them. As it is quite possible to get busted. I've had it both ways. But funnily enough, it happened to me only once. Not so with the fish.
Low limit loose California hold'em is an extremely high variance game. In fact, I believe the variance is so high that if you have the bankroll to handle it, you should play higher limits.
You should be hanged by your nostrils for giving this kind of advice. Playing higher limits requires good knowledge of the game, wit, thinking, alertness, feel and creativeness. Lower limits are much easier to beat with a correct, but somewhat simple strategy. When playing correctly against fish the potential losses will be caused mostly by bad luck, whereas against skilled opponents the correct strategy is often not easy to come by. If we add a possibility of a bad run, results can be disastrous with more money at stake.
You will need to play three or four thousand hours of low limit to justifiably believe that your results are independent of the swings common at that level.
Oh so true. That's why I played lots of loose hold'em in the virtual Turbo world. No tells, no fun, no social interactions, no cocktail waitresses, no fine beverages, no doobie smoking. But, no bad beat stories to listen to, either. True, Turbo is crude, but it's the best research tool to date. I find it reasonably reliable in all but extreme cases.
Thanks for your time, gotta run, there's a nice hairy girly coming over tonight. It's the best thing happening to me since my favorite pet was killed by a hit and run driver (yes, a sheep). This poker thing is killing my social life.
Izmet
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