Are extremely loose games beatable?
Date: Sun, 26 Sep 99 15:34:17 MET
From: izmet@siol.net (Izmet Fekali)
Subject: Re: Are extremely loose games beatable? (a 2+2 debate)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker
Izmet wrote:
With many in, jam preflop with hands like T9s, JJ or ATs even if one opponent shows you pocket aces!
Chris K. wrote:
With all due respect: this is nonsense.
Izmet asks:
Care to elaborate?
Chris K. writes:
Three reasons to raise:
- To eliminate opponants and increase our chances of winning.
- To build a bigger pot should we hit our draw, providing that we are experiencing postitive expectation anyway.
- We are ahead and are Taxing the mediocre draws.
In a pot pre-flop with nobody likely to fold to a raise and re-raise (I.E. California low limit hold 'em) Does raising with a hand like T9s JJ or ATs against a known player with AA increase your expectation? Does it eliminate any other players and increase our chances of winning? Are we ahead and taxing the mediocre draws? Maybe, no, and no.
I'm glad at least somebody is willing to tackle this subject. OK, let's debate then.
First, let me make something clear. I used the words "even if one opponent shows you pocket aces" to illustrate the point, NOT to provide some lunatic strategy against aces. If one of the opponents indeed has aces, ramming and jamming preflop with said hands and many opponents becomes marginal, but still correct. Again, my point is as follows:
With enough opponents calling raises preflop, profits will be (disproportionally) split between two best hands.
Let's take a look at somewhat extreme example of JJ against AA and six loonies calling all preflop raises (remember, we are talking loose here). Let me say it right here: if a player raises UTG and shows me pocket aces before I get the chance to act, my JJ will be hitting the muck with enviable velocity. Granted, aces are a bit like Doug Grant: stay away, live another day.
But let's say I don't know (yet) I'm against rockets raising UTG. There are two callers, and I re-raise with my jacks. Lo and behold, there are four more callers (including the blinds) behind. I think to myself, this is gonna be interesting, thank you Allah for bringing food to the table, thank you for knowing I'm especially fond of fish.
Now the original UTG raiser re-raises again and shows me his aces. I'm not particularly happy seeing those friggin' alphabet starters, but as I am certain nobody is folding at this point (I can see mouths watering all over the table at the prospect of a gigantic pot), I make it five bets immediately with my jacks and everybody calls (California players please note five bets cap is standard in posh Vegas joints).
I say it's an immediate +EV move.
According to my sims, against aces and six more opponents, pocket jacks will win a little less than 15% of the time, and the aces will win about 38% of the time. If the game is $20-40, there is now $800 in the pot. I have a 15% equity in this pot ($120) for a cost of $100. This of course translates to $20 immediate profit (hey, I know it's not much, but it wasn't me dealing those damn aces to that pathetic turd juggler).
Now imagine being against AKs (especially when not in suit with one of your jacks) in this situation instead of aces. I have a whooping 24% equity then, for a $92 immediate profit in the above situation. Now this is not peanuts anymore. You are therefore advised by simple and modest Izmet Fekali here to jam your heart out in similar situations when the bankroll size is not an issue. Remember, it's the number of callers that's important, NOT just having the best hand.
Granted, variance goes thru the roof here, but I always wrongly assume everybody is loaded bankroll-wise as I am (I've been flipping burgers in Ljubljana for some time now and it seems quite lucrative to greedy ol' me).
Out of the 3 hands you mentioned, JJ being the best … you are about a 4.5 - 1 dog against the Aces. And you might be a favorite against the rest of each individual player, but the combined odds against the field would probably put you at about (guessing) a 6-1 or 7-1 dog against the field (including the AA). The T9s and ATs probably don't make the cut and may make the situation negative — Thus making the pre-flop raise unsound.
Funny enough, JJ is not the best hand out of the three mentioned when against aces. The honors go to T9s as this hand will win about 16.5% of the time in this situation according to my sims. I didn't bother to do sims with ATs as this hand would indeed do poorly against aces (I roughly estimate about 10% win). But nevertheless, jamming with this hand would still be correct if there were enough (let's say ten) opponents calling the raises. Again, it's the concept that's important, not particular hand situations.
Maybe it is fair to mention that some of world's best limit players are quite aware of this concept. I first stumbled upon it this summer in Bellagio when Abdul limped UTG with T9s (in a $30-60 game) and then subsequently jammed the pot against my pocket queens when five other optimistic players showed propensity for calling all raises. Sadly enough, that (humongous) pot failed to find the way home and made the day for another player. I felt the urge to pluck his eyes out when watching him rack that mountain of chips.
Another quick semi-related note: as it was obvious at the table that I and Abdul knew each other, there was plenty of reason to suspect collusion on our part, raising wild preflop like that. He was smart enough to show his hand to a fellow rgp-er Sergeant Rock (smartly folding in the blind) before mucking on the flop to avoid any kind of accusations. You are advised to do the same when jamming like this.
On the plus side, should you flop a good draw, you will have good pot odds to draw to. You hope that what you give away pre-flop, you make up + some post flop.
This is true, of course. But, please be aware I'm talking about getting +EV preflop, not sacrificing it.
Now the best part, a hand like T9s against 8 players who acted and decided to put their money in (in other words they are not 8 random hands á la computer simulation) has a good chance of drawing dead to the flush. Lets say 1 time in 5. So it maybe a negative expectation call anyway, but can be overcome by post flop play. If you raise — you increase your negative expectation thus you lose some by raising. You trade a little EV for a bigger pot, which I guess is acceptable.
We are talking extremely loose games here, where opponents are not sane and their hands are close to random. There is no such thing as six sane two-or-three-bet-cold-callers. Even if their holdings are somewhat rational, the concept of jamming with the second best hand still holds water.
True, drawing dead is a possibility. Still, on average, T9s will win more than fair share here and can profitably jam.
The real plus for these types of hands is in medium 4 way action where your raising for the unspoken 4th reason to raise:
- 4.Raise for deceptive purposes where it may cause your opponants to make critical mistakes in the later, more expensive rounds. I.E Give you a free draw to beat them.
This is just a bonus, a very nice one, though.
Which rarely happens in 9-way action pots. Anyway … Questions for the math and statistic weenies. How do you calculate the combined odds of you versus the field? For instance: You have JJ and are against AA — which makes you about a 4.5-1 dog against the AA, but you inturn are a 4.5-1 favorite against 1 player, and 5-1 favorite against another and a 1.5-1 favorite against a another.
Lets say
- Player 1: - AA
- Player 2: KQs
- Player 3: 88
- Player 4: JJ (you)
- Player 5: T9s
I am quite good with numbers, as I used to work in a license plate factory and had numbers coming out of my ass. But, this kind of math sends shivers down my spine and I prefer to fire up Turbo, sit back, light a doobie and think pure thoughts while waiting for results.
Chris K.
-veni, vedi, velcro-
"I came, I saw, I stuck around."
It's "Veni, vidi, velcro." Stalking those short skirted students after their Latin class was my favorite pastime some time ago.
Izmet
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